BACKGROUND

The national context

Any plan for the centre of Ealing must take into account the national trends affecting retail in general.  The factors to be considered include:

·               the trend for destination retail to concentrate into larger and fewer locations[7]

·               the expectation by shoppers that any shopping centre they take the time to travel to should have a large number of competing, non-food, retailers (the adjacencies argument)

·               the importance of car-borne shoppers to mid-to-up market non-food suburban retailing[8]

·               the opportunity for commuter households, many of which are dual income, to shop near where they work, and/or on their way home, rather than close to where they live.

·               the growth of on-line retailing

·               predictions by leading accountancy consultancies that the recent rates of growth in retail sales will not return and that many national chain retailers may need to vacate between a quarter and a third of their outlets[9]

·               an accelerating deterioration in retail activity, with many retailers including the John Lewis group now (October 2008) reporting week-on-week reductions of between 10% and 20% for many of their Greater London and Home Counties stores.

The current economic climate will accelerate the national downturn in retail as a result of these trends, and is likely to precipitate an even greater concentration into larger centres.  Chain retailers will attempt to limit their premises costs by closing outlets in the smaller shopping locations where there is a low footfall.

The challenge to retail in Ealing’s town centre

The present position in Ealing is characterised by significant withdrawal by national retailers, many of whom cite increasing competition from other shopping locations, e.g. White City, Wembley and Brent Cross.  This has resulted in more vacant shop units and a move to down market tenants by landlords.

Despite the closures over the last two to three years and the evident oversupply of retail floorspace, the Council has backed proposals to increase available space further, and in particular to target “aspirational” or up-market niche retailers.  In our view this is perverse, because of the following facts.

·               Council projections for growth in retail demand, which are being used to justify this expansion, are wildly unrealistic.  There only is a finite amount of retail expenditure in West London.  Just adding floorspace in Ealing is unlikely to attract additional consumer spending, especially when the much larger and more attractive shopping destinations already available have been joined by White City, which will dwarf any expansion in Ealing.

·               There is over-reliance on the additional retail expenditure which might be generated by the residents of proposed but as yet unapproved town centre housing developments, whose residents will probably work, and therefore do much of their non-food shopping, outside Ealing.

·               Analyses of the retail demographics of the town centre catchment area are inadequate and verging on the non-existent, when compared for example to those of Hillingdon Council.  The realities are that, contrary to the type of retail that is projected, Ealing’s ageing population means declining demand for the high street fashion chains which mainly cater for 20-45 year olds.  Areas of high localised wealth are limited when  compared to Richmond and other mid-to-up market locations, and this reduces the catchment area for mid-to-up market retail.

·               Road congestion in Ealing and poor access to the town centre by car discourage the consumer groups which are being targeted  The constraints of the Hanwell Viaduct, the A4, Argyll Road, and the North Circular create an effective boundary to the vehicle catchment area.  Car access is especially difficult from the North of the railway line because of the Town Centre one way system.  This is exacerbated by limited shopper car parking in the town centre, a fraction of that in Uxbridge, Kingston or White City.  Ironically, improved rail connections and tube interchanges may make it easier for those resident within the central area to shop elsewhere, rather than attracting more people in.

·               The move down market by many landlords in their lettings policies.  The more down market retailers there are, the less attractive the Town Centre becomes to mid-to-up market retailers and shoppers.  Fewer mid-to-up market shoppers (footfall) means fewer quality restaurants and other service businesses, which adds to the downward spiral in attractiveness.  At the same time, rental levels for retail space are being kept high.

·               There is an inconsistency between the design and scale of present proposed town centre developments and the built environments of those suburban locations which foster successful mid/up market retail, e.g. Chiswick, Richmond and Wimbledon Village.  There is an unsupported assertion that Ealing’s present retail units are of the “wrong” size, though this does not appear to cause problems to areas such as Richmond or Chiswick.  At the same time, aspirations to attract a department and/or anchor store(s) are inconsistent with existing plans and with the catchmthat Ealing offers. 

·               Finally there is a risk that many years of wholesale redevelopment in the town centre will drive away even more shoppers, possibly permanently, and result in the failure of small town centre retail and service businesses.

 OPTIONS

The choice for Ealing is between

• the Council’s expansionist “regeneration” strategy, which is high risk and likely to fail for the reasons above, and
• a modest contraction in town centre retail capacity, or at least no net expansion.  This would aim to more closely match retail capacity to the spend of the local catchment area, with an offer which differentiates Ealing from major competitors such as White City.  This is the low risk choice, is more likely to succeed and could integrate well with other revitalisation strategies.

PROPOSALS

Preferred option

SEC’s  preferred option is for no expansion in Ealing Town Centre’s retail floorspace.  The proximity and scale of the new White City Shopping Centre means that any increase would be both high risk and likely to exacerbate the growing number of vacant units in the town centre.  We believe that Ealing’s future retail offer should be based on the demographics of its local catchment area.  We should recognise the limitations of the natural geographical zone in which the town is placed and the competitive pressures from surrounding retail centres.  Ealing Town Centre should NOT attempt to compete with a similar offer to that available at larger centres such as White City. 

Improved links could ease the problems of transport from parts of the Borough as mentioned above, and SEC’s Vision for transport aims to do both this and to improve access to the town centre car parks.  However Ealing should NOT adopt an expansionist policy based on achieving increased penetration of the comparison goods market outside the area bounded by: Hanwell Viaduct, the A4, Argyll Road, and the North Circular.[10] 

Components and contribution to revitalisation

The elements of a sustainable policy for retail development in the Ealing Broadway area which will play a part in the revitalisation of the centre are we believe as follow:

• Ealing’s retail should be based around an offer which emphasises local independents, accommodating those national chains which are compatible with this.
• Ealing’s retail offer should include a market (ideally covered) which would enable a number of smaller and independent retailers to establish a retail presence without high premises costs.  A market would reintroduce many of the products, haberdashery for example, which have been lost from the town centre following the exit of the Department Stores (see examples of market stalls at ‘The Pavilions’ in Uxbridge and, in a more tourist orientated version, at Greenwich).
• An indoor market could be complemented by an outdoor one which could be used by a weekly farmers market and the occasional continental food fairs.
• Possible locations for the markets could be the Lamerton site for the indoor market, with the outdoor one on or alongside Ealing Green.

Challenges to achieving preferred option (What must go right)

Successful implementation of a viable retail policy for Ealing town centre requires a number of decisions to be made and steps to be taken.  These include:

·               Abandoning the aspiration to remain a ‘Metropolitan Centre’, which is being used by the Council’s Regeneration Team and developers  to justify expansionist proposals.

·               The preparation of realistic projections of retail expenditure by the residents of the catchment area, based on a detailed demographic analysis, and an assessment of their disposable income and travel patterns including commuting.

·               A realistic assessment of current and future footfall and pedestrian flows within the town centre and their impact on the continued viability of the existing shopping locations, let alone the proposed new and peripheral retail developments.

·               Acknowledgment that the quantum of additional shopper car parking proposed for the Dickens Yard and Arcadia sites will be insufficient to support a retail revival.

·               The need to develop a master plan for shopper car parking which both caters for the maximum number of car movements which can reasonably be accommodated on the approach roads to the town centre and which also locates additional car parking at the main access points to the town centre, in order to minimise the number of car movements in the heart of the town.

·               Resolving the inconsistency between the aspiration to re-establish mid-to-up market retail in the town centre and the move to down market retail tenants (Primark etc.) by landlords in response to the departure of mid-market retailers.

·               Recognition of the detrimental consequences for retail of the continued over emphasis on a night time vertical drinking economy targeted at 18 to 30 year olds.  Restaurants are an increasingly integral element of a successful shopping location.  Licensing decisions, with their resulting public behaviour problems, means that it is no longer attractive to operate restaurants catering for customers over 35 years old in the evening in the town centre.  Without evening trade restaurants cannot afford to operate in the day time.  The result is that Ealing lacks the very restaurants which are needed to complement a successful mid-market to up-market shopping revival.  

·               Committing to a low rise built environment which reflects the town centre’s Victorian and Edwardian heritage and which would favour a move up market to mid market retail.

·               Resolution of the issues associated with the station and transport interchange, so that it is easy for the residents of the catchment area to visit, shop and spend time and money on the retail and leisure attractions in the town centre.

·               Rent levels and business rates need to be contained so that it is economic for quality and independent retailers to trade in the town centre.